When I was a kid, I always used to say – “I don’t want to say I don’t believe in Ghost because then they will try to scare me”.
What I think I meant was that just because you don’t believe in ghosts doesn’t mean they don’t exist.
The same holds true for fraud. Over the years, I have seen so many examples of organizations (and industries even) believing that fraud does not exist and then later seeing those ghosts of fraud appear to haunt them later.
You Have to Look to Find Fraud But Not Looking Does Not Mean it Does Not Exist
Just because something does not appear on a monthly report with a dollar loss associated with it, does not mean that the problem is not there.
I see this all the time.
A bank, financial company, or lender points to their fraud reports and says – “Take a look. My Fraud Numbers Are Low. I don’t have a fraud problem at all”
When I hear executives claim they do not have a fraud problem, my knee-jerk reaction response is – “Yes you do”. Merely saying you do not have a fraud problem almost always indicates a lack of awareness of fraud which is pervasive in every aspect of a business.
Just because you do not look for fraud does not mean it does not exist. It just means that you are not finding it. It is there.
And, it will scare you eventually.
A Great Example Is The Mortgage Fraud Ghosts of 2006
Let’s look at the mortgage industry for example, and let’s look at this chart below. From 2004 to 2006, I spent every waking hour trying to convince mortgage lenders that fraud existed. That fraud mattered.
But it was a tough sell. Most lenders told me fraud was inconsequential. They told me when it happened it didn’t matter because borrowers would pay anyway so they could stay in the home.
Boy were they wrong. In fact, mortgage fraud was cited by many industry leaders as the primary reason the industry collapsed.
This chart shows the lag between suspicious activity and when it actually gets reported. In this case, it took mortgage lenders almost 4 years to fully recognize fraud.
That ghost they had ignored came back to scare them.
First Party Fraud is the Perpetual Ghost Across Industries
First Party Fraud is the most infamous fraud ghost across industries. First Party fraud occurs when real people, real customers perpetrate fraud schemes against banks and financial institutions.
It is usually seen when borrowers make no payments on loans they take out, or when consumers kite on their checking or credit card accounts (also called bustout).
First Party Fraud is a classic ghost because very few companies actually look for it and prevent it. Most First Party Fraud goes undetected and almost always ends up in a Bank’s charge off losses.
It’s a shame too because there are so many easy ways to detect and stop it.
You can’t bury your head in the sand and expect it to not have consequences.
The Fraud Ghost That Exist Today
I think there are a few fraud ghosts out there this year that people may not see. Here are some of the ones I think are worth noting.
- Neo Banks – Challenger banks are growing like crazy. But are their customer friendly policies causing their portfolios to be infiltrated by fraudsters, money mules and others trying to move illicit money? Are their ghost of hidden fraud on say Chime’s portfolio?
- Auto Lending Fraud – With auto lending booming, the ghost are probably in the closet so to speak. Companies like Point Predictive estimate that about 67% or close to $5 billion every year in fraud could be sitting in early payment default loss buckets.
- Synthetic Identity Fraud – Fraud Managers everywhere are screaming about this fraud but many others might not. Trust me. This ghost is going to scare a lot of people.
- Alternative Lending – The levels of first and third party fraud are likely to be alarmingly high. With online lenders and Buy Now Pay Later lenders, we may see hidden fraud exposed soon.
- Mortgage Fraud Ghost 2.0 – Home values are soaring. Some lenders have short term memories. And there is simply too much money in mortgage to be had to keep the lid on fraud forever. Watch this ghost spring back to life again sooner than you think.
Fraud Ghost are Everywhere
I think good fraud managers are a lot like this kid below. This kid was blessed/cursed by his ability to see dead people.
“I see fraud ghost.”
Good fraud managers are able to find the ghost that no one else believes in. They see dead people. Is it a curse? Probably so.
Once you see these ghosts that no one else believes in you have to spend years trying to convince them that they exist. And that can be brutal.
Trust me, I’ve been there and it can be a long road.
What do you think? Do you see fraud ghost? I’d love to hear which ones. Thanks for reading.